Trump & Musk: The Demons of Unrest

With 12 days to go before the election, I have some thoughts about Trump, Musk, Tornetta, and modern day indulgences.

(The inspiration for today’s title. For more, see Part V of this post.)

I. The Evil Twins

As everyone by now knows, Elon Musk has gone all in for Donald Trump, donating munificent sums of money to the Trump campaign, speaking at Trump rallies in the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania, amplifying Trump memes (and misinformation) on X, and devising his million-dollar-a-day lottery in hopes of registering new voters.

I believe Trump’s primary goal in running is to immunize himself from federal prosecution. He will waste no time in firing Special Prosecutor Jack Smith and banishing from the Department of Justice everyone who had anything to do with the criminal prosecutions in the confidential documents and federal election interference cases.¹

I believe Elon Musk’s primary goals in supporting Trump are (1) to buy himself immunity from any potential criminal prosecution, (2) to assure the continuation of the disgracefully light regulatory touch his companies have enjoyed, and (3) to preserve the massive U.S. taxpayer support (via governmental contracts, tax credits, subsidies, and regulatory credit payments) that his companies enjoy.

Eight years ago, I was first struck by the strong similarities between Musk and Trump. Several months ago, Andy Kessler, writing in The Wall Street Journal, did a more comprehensive (and amusing) job of identifying the “eerie parallels.”

The spectacle of world’s wealthiest man propping up the worst U.S. president in history, with both of them sharing the talent of shamelessly and endlessly telling big lies, is deeply disconcerting.

II. The Useful Idiot of Putin, Xi, and Kim

Today, The Wall Street Journal broke a blockbuster story about Musk’s numerous and secret conversations with Vladimir Putin since late 2022 (in other words, the conversations began months after Russia invaded Ukraine, and after Russia already had committed various war crimes).

From the story:

At one point, Putin asked the billionaire to avoid activating his Starlink satellite internet service over Taiwan as a favor to Chinese leader Xi Jinping, said two people briefed on the request.

As those of you who followed my earlier work at Seeking Alpha know, Tesla’s enormous reliance on cheap parts and cheap labor at its Shanghai factory has made Musk utterly dependent on the good graces of Chairman Xi. Musk, of course, realizes this and has frequently and loudly praised Xi in ways that lend new dimensions to the concept of sycophancy.

Musk enjoys top secret U.S. security clearance. SpaceX has a massive contract with the U.S. Department of Defense. SpaceX and other Musk companies have billions of dollars in contracts with other U.S. governmental agencies:

(from a October 21, 2024 New York Times article)

So, now we have the spectacle of Musk lining up with Putin, Xi, and (given that North Korea is now supplying Russia not only with weapons, but also with soldiers) Kim Jong Un.

This is the greatest U.S. national security disgrace of my lifetime. Musk should be seen as a treasonous opportunist. Any responsible U.S. government would immediately suspend his security clearance and cancel his companies’ contracts. Instead, however, the U.S. government continues to shower Musk companies with contracts, tax credits, and subsidies.

Much like the Roman Catholic Church in the 15th Century, promising the faithful that purchasing indulgences would shorten their time in purgatory, the U.S. government forces other automakers to bestow on Tesla massive regulatory credits, premised on the idea that making internal combustion vehicles more expensive will beneficially affect global warming. The regulatory credits are every bit as efficacious in this regard as was were the indulgences in the time of Luther.

III. Waiting for Tornetta

I will offer some pure speculation: the Delaware Court of Chancery has already completed work on its opinion and final order in Tornetta, ruling that the June ratification vote was legally ineffective, and awarding a record amount of legal fees to the plaintiff.²

However, Chancellor Kathaleen St. Jude McCormick, who has already been viciously attacked by Musk and his minions, appreciates that releasing the ruling now, with the the election imminent, would result in orchestrated accusations that she is part of the “deep state” bent on punishing Musk for his advocacy of the Trump candidacy.

Hence, I now believe the opinion and order will not be released until after the election.

IV. Q3 Earnings: A New High Water Mark in Tesla Fraud

Tesla’s earnings announcement on Wednesday, with its earnings “beat,” triggered a buying frenzy that has driven the share price skyward.

• Much of the quarter’s profit resulted from “Full Self-Driving” (FSD) revenue recognition. There is no such thing as Tesla FSD. Tesla has sold vaporware for eight years. It is recognizing revenue for a product that does not exist and likely will never exist.

• A substantial chunk of the quarter’s profit was from regulatory credits. In other words, the indulgences about which I wrote earlier. 100% misguided governmental policy. 100% margin. So, sure, let’s continue to reward Musk for his treasonous activities.

• The perceptive Rob Schmied (@rschmied_66 on Threads) has been following Tesla’s ability to add billions to its “work in progress” while somehow managing to avoid ever begin depreciating the additions:

• Here is a graphic representation (from the wry and knowledgeable CoverDrive, who is @coverdrive1234 on Threads) on the “growth” company now trading at a 93 price-to-earnings ratio:

In recent years, my consistent advice about Tesla stock is to avoid it, either long or short. That remains my advice. The latest earnings report vindicates the wisdom of that advice. Let the idiots who own it choke on it.

V. The Demon of Unrest

I recently finished reading³ Eric Larson’s latest book, The Demon of Unrest: A Saga of Hubris, Heartbreak, and Heroism at the Dawn of the Civil War, about the fraught period between Lincoln’s election in 1859 and the early months of his presidency in 1860.

The immensely talented Larson tells the story in a crisp and fresh manner, drawing on vivid accounts in contemporary diaries, letters, and speeches. Lincoln’s predecessor, James Buchanan, had allowed the nation to sleepwalk into war. The secession of southern states began soon after Lincoln was elected, and before his inauguration, while Buchanan stood by and did nothing even as Fort Sumter was besieged.

As Larson wrote in his opening note, he was inspired to write the book after being “riveted” by the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the U.S. Capitol and captivated by “the eerie feeling that present and past had merged.” The parallels with the present day are unmistakable though, thankfully, the possibility of a civil war is (in my view) remote.

VI. Casting My Vote

I voted earlier this week. As I now live in New Mexico, which is a reliably blue state, I had hoped to write in Liz Cheney for president. Alas, the ballot offered no means of casting a write-in vote, so I voted instead for Kamala Harris.

As I explained in an earlier piece, I am a Ronald Reagan conservative. I find many of Harris’s policy positions to be terribly misguided. But, to me, this election is not a policy election. The far more important issue is the manifest unfitness of Donald Trump, who has contempt for the Constitution and who, in my judgment, committed treason in connection with the 2020 election.

Conservatives like me will find it far more comfortable to spend the next four years opposing the policies of Harris, and hoping that in the meantime the Republican Party can purge from its system the poison of Trumpism.⁴

1. Trump, as president, would have no control over the two state criminal prosecutions, and the presidential pardon power extends only to federal crimes. The Georgia election interference case which, while it appears to me to have much merit, was brought as a highly complex state RICO action, and has (so far) been mishandled by Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis. In the New York hush money case, a guilty verdict has been returned but sentencing has been delayed until after the election. I believe that case has some severe infirmities that could result in reversal on appeal. Regardless, it is unlikely to result in any prison time even if the trial verdict is upheld. [Author’s note, October 26, 2024: this footnote originally stated that the appellate court appeared to have doubts about the legality of the hush money case. As Ranulf de Glanville has since graciously pointed out to me, I have confused the New York civil case (involving inflation of Trump’s balance sheet) with the New York hush money criminal case. Thank you, Ranulf, for the correction.]

2. Those interested can find a wealth of information about the Tornetta case in my earlier Substack posts.

3. More accurately, I listened to the book, with a truly brilliant narration by Will Patton.

4. An unpopular opinion, to be sure, as it will alienate both the Trump enthusiasts and the Harris enthusiasts. But, it’s my Substack. In the spirit of the late, great William F. Buckley, Jr., who would respond to enraged letter writers demanding that he cancel their subscription to his National Review magazine by stating, “Cancel your own goddam subscription,” I say, “Start your own goddam Substack.”