Why I Won't Vote for Donald Trump

Spoiler Alert: Because I'm a Conservative

I think, on balance, the policies of a President Donald Trump might prove to be better (or, at least less destructive) than those of a President Harris. So, why won’t I vote for Trump?

(NBC news images)

Hey, Aren’t You a Conservative?

Yes, I am a “conservative.” Because that word is hardly self-explanatory, I’ll be more precise. I am a Ronald Reagan conservative. To me, that means I believe in fiscal responsibility, individual liberty, the superiority of capitalism relative to its competitors, free markets, the rule of law, immigration policies that appreciate both the need for assimilation and the value of immigrants, and a strong position for the United States on the world stage.

I won’t pretend Ronald Reagan was a purist on these points. We can, for instance, point to his steel tariffs as an example of where he bent his free market principles to accommodate political realities.

I not only understand why he did that, but actually salute him for bending. The tariffs were not his first choice. But in our system, compromise is crucial. Our Constitution was designed with the idea that there will always be groups of people who sincerely and often passionately hold quite different views about any number of governance issues. (My personal hero among the Founders is James Madison, who understood this, and who had an enormous role in writing a constitution that was founded on that reality.)¹

But Donald Trump is not a conservative. Neither is he a liberal. Nor is he a progressive. Nor a libertarian, nor a capitalist, nor a socialist. Nor is he in any other sense someone who possesses an ideology.

Rather, he is (much like his soul brother, Elon Musk) an opportunist, a narcissist, and an egomaniac. He has never looked at, never mind studied, the U.S. Constitution. He would be incapable of distinguishing the writings of Adam Smith from those of Patti Smith. His knowledge of U.S. history (or, indeed, of any aspect of world history) is paper thin. He hasn’t read a book in decades. I doubt he could tell a Degas from a Doonesbury. He is a vain, pompous, and proud ignoramus. He values loyalty and sycophancy, and little else.

Sadly, he has deeply corrupted the Republican Party. It has become unrecognizable to me and to many other conservatives.

But Wait… Didn’t You Say His Policies Might Be Better?

On balance, is it possible that the policies of a President Trump might be more “conservative” (as I define the word) than those of President Harris? Yes, it’s possible.

But it’s also possible that his policies would be dreadful. As this campaign unfolds, we see him sprinting to the left on some social issues, while promising ever more spending that we simply cannot afford and vowing not to touch entitlements that have become utterly unsustainable. On top of all that, he is promising steep tariffs that would be, in effect, a punishing tax on American consumers.

In other words, many of the policies he is promising are just as destructive, albeit in different ways, as the policies Harris is promising (price controls, homebuyer subsidies, expanded tax credits, etc.). And, just to be clear, Harris has been every bit as uninterested as Trump in curbing profligate federal spending and warding off the impending entitlements train wreck.

The reality is that if Trump is elected, he won’t be able to accomplish many of the things he is promising. The same is true of Harris. The Executive is but one branch of our government, and the Legislative Branch has historically been a huge check on presidential ambition. Which is I why I pray for divided government (a Congressional majority in the party that is the opposition to the President’s party) no matter whether Trump or Harris is elected.

Why I Don’t Care that Trump’s Policies Might Be Better

Even if Donald Trump were a conservative precisely in the mold of Ronald Reagan, I would not vote for him. The reason is simple: he attempted to steal the 2020 presidential election and then incited and condoned the January 6 violence.

Those acts are simply unforgivable. We as a nation can survive a bad president. We have in the past, and we will in the future.

But our constitutional order cannot endure if we tolerate treasonous behavior by the Executive. If you have any doubt that Trump’s behavior was treasonous, then I commend to you the detailed reporting in the book, Peril, co-authored by Bob Woodward and Robert Costa.

Harris Would Be Better on at Least One Important Issue

U.S. Presidents have far more power when it comes to foreign policy than they do in domestic policy. While we now face several ominous foreign policy threats (China, Iran, and North Korea among them), Russia is the threat on which the policies of Trump and Harris are most likely to differ.

I believe the Biden Administration has been much too tepid in its support of Ukraine. However, it has been, at least, supportive. Harris would certainly continue to stand with Ukraine, and might do so more stoutly than has Biden.

I have no such confidence in another Trump Administration. Trump’s praise of Putin has been simply bizarre.² Many of his key supporters have adopted his pro-Russian, anti-Ukraine stance. (Ronald Reagan would roll over in his grave.)³

Conservatism Would Benefit from a Trump Shellacking

For several reasons, a sound thrashing of Trump would have salutary effects for conservatism.

First, in such a defeat, down-ballot Republicans almost certainly would receive more votes than Trump. Trump would properly be viewed as a huge loser who, for the fourth election in a row (starting with the 2018 midterms) cost Republicans victory by endorsing kooky candidates in primaries and by heading the ticket himself.⁴

Second, the Republican Party might finally be purged of the toxin of Trumpism. The party might remember that it used to stand for fiscal conservatism and small government. It might start offering voters a genuine alternative to progressivism. It might even adopt sensible internal reforms so that its primaries cease being a race to the extreme right.

Third (and I admit this one is a bit more speculative), the Democratic Party actually might become less prone to excesses. As an example, many of the extremes in “woke-ism” came about because Trump was so hated in liberal circles that failing to stand up against the extremist forms of woke kookiness was viewed as failing to oppose Trump. And yet there are many Democrats who will admit, publicly or privately, that the “woke” business poisoned the atmosphere in many work places and created a sort of Robespierrian terror.

In other words, Trump threw gasoline on the fire being nursed by the extreme elements of progressivism.

The Elon Musk Factor

The latest news is that Trump proposes to make Elon Musk the head of a commission to promote governmental efficiency, and Musk wholeheartedly endorses the idea.⁵

I am all for governmental efficiency, and I have no doubt that there is lots of fat to cut. But the idea that Musk is the person to accomplish the mission is laughable. In terms of vehicles produced per employee, Tesla is one of the least efficient car manufacturers in the world. Musk has cut thousands of employees at Twitter, but instead of increased efficiency, the result has been drastically slashed revenues and increased regulatory scrutiny.

Further, imagine how the serious people at the Department of Justice or the Securities and Exchange Commission would feel about having Elon Musk for a boss. They know he has gotten away with crime after crime, and they know he knows. The only question is whether he would fire them before they had a chance to resign.

So, Will I Vote for Harris?

It depends.

I recently moved to a blue state (New Mexico).⁶ If on election day it appears Harris is far ahead in New Mexico, then I will write in Mitt Romney or Liz Cheney.

But if it’s close, I’ll vote for Harris.

My vote won’t be an endorsement. It won’t be because I expect her to be a good president (though, I suppose, it’s possible we could be surprised). I’ll be doing it to help assure that Donald Trump is defeated.

I’ll be doing it because I am a conservative.

Have I Offended You?

I get criticized by Republicans. They say that if I’m really a conservative, then I have to support Trump. If I’m not supporting Trump, then I’m not really a conservative.

I get criticized by Democrats. They say that if I really want to defeat Trump, then I need to be full-throated in my support of Harris. I must praise her and welcome without reservation the coming of a Harris-Walz Administration.

I am distinctly unimpressed by either of those criticisms.

I expect many readers will take issue with what I have written. I’m okay with that. I’ll pay close attention to all civil comments and criticisms. I value and respect differing views. I’ve been wrong about plenty of things in the past, and try to stay alive to the possibility that I might be wrong about yet more things in the future.

But what I won’t agree to do is to play on a team. Not the one with the red uniforms. Not the one with the blue uniforms.

1. A superb new book on this topic is American Covenant (How the Constitution Unified Our Nation—and Could Again) by Yuval Levin (Basic Books 2024).

2. And though I hold that view, I certainly do agree that the conspiracy mongering during Trump’s first term about his supposed collusion with Russia was sad and destructive, and a dark stain on many U.S. news outlets.

3. To be sure, I am bothered by how Harris wants to have it both ways on Israel (and Tim Walz even more so). Trump would likely be a more reliable ally of Israel than Harris. But I think Israel is in a far better position to take care of itself than is Ukraine.

4. Examples are legion. Remember Dr. Oz in 2022? Now watch Kari Lake lose, and lose badly, in a state that a “normal” Republican would have won easily.

5. I count myself as one of the first to appreciate the parallels between Trump and Musk. More recently, Andy Kessler, who has a weekly column in The Wall Street Journal, made the same point more comprehensively and amusingly.

6. Nope, I’m not about to re-brand myself as New Mexico Skeptic.