48 Comments

Would it not be true that Musk's actual reported net worth should be net of the liabilities (borrowing) that you mentioned...assuming, of course, they could be determined.

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I think the margin loans would be a small fraction of the $400B. They were sizable for a while, especially when the share price was lower, but then were paid down. Not sure what they are now.

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I've read that he borrowed against 60% of his Tesla shares. That's the maximum the banks probably allow.

So it's crucial for that overinflated stock price to go down.

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I know at one time he had extensive borrowing. But I believe he reduced that after a sale of some TSLA shares. IIRC, the latest proxy materials (now outdated, of course, but it’s all we have) reflected that his outstanding margin debt is not, at present, very high.

Still, it’s a risk and, of course, a sweet tax dodge.

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I have a long time friend who told me all excitedly last year that he had bought a Tesla model Y. I asked why and he told me he drives 50 Miles round trip to play golf almost every day and not much else. He has a garage and a driveway and charges at night relatively cheaply. I had to admit, he's the most suitable owner there is for an EV. So I only cautioned him to get a long extension cord and charge it in the driveway (I knew he wouldn't), told him not to use auto-pilot, and wished him luck he never needs service for it. Later I started feeling bad about what I had said. No way was he ever going to sell it based on anything I could say.

I called a month later and he asked me if he had already told me he bought a Tesla? Obviously he hadn't remembered anything I told him about Musk and Tesla. That was before the election. I'll give him a call soon. If anybody can sour him on his Tesla, it will be Elon Musk.

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Thanks, Harry. Let us know how the next conversation goes.

It's not worth losing friends over this, of course, but it sounds as if you treaded lightly.

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The ignorance of shareholders in Tesla is amazing but will end at some point. A weakness in the general stock market would also help. Risks are plenty.

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Lots of ignorance. Lots of people who are in index funds, too, and consequently never think that they own TSLA.

And plenty of cynicism from the greater fool crowd.

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Such a great article. Thank you. Downloading Bluesky next and looking through Ed’s stuff.

Trump pumping a meme coin for his own benefit within a week of being elected…allowing Elon to shred the government agencies that have been investigating his wrongdoing…government transportation agencies allowing Tesla to beta test ‘full self driving’ on the public…Elon being allowed to lie to his investors over and over again without repercussions. I could’ve never believed we’d devolve to this. We just traded one swamp for another.

Narcissists can’t share a spotlight. Trump will, sooner than most believe, push Elon off the stage. I believe Elon needs Trump MUCH more than Trump needs Elon. Trumps need for Elon ended on election night. When they separate, we will find that Emperor Elon has no clothes.

Thank you for identifying the issue of TSLAs large role in the S&P 500. Like full self driving, innocent folks will be harmed greatly. That will be a true tragedy that should never have happened

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Thanks for the thoughtful comment.

My Italian friend, Mr. Ferri, has some interesting thoughts in these comments about why Musk might have more staying power with Trump than others have. Take a look at those, and give them some thought. I hope he's wrong, of course (and I'm sure he does, too). But worth considering.

I still think that, as the season for actual governance approaches (budgets, hard choices, debt ceiling) and as the fallout from the DOGE marauding mounts, Trump's popularity will take a hit and with it, Musk's. But, as we've all learned, it's just impossible to foresee exactly what lies ahead.

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But isn’t Elon valuable to Trump because he (Elon) can fund, for now, any primary for anyone that dares cross them? I know Trump has falling out with virtually everyone, but I do think Elon’s massive wealth (and his willingness to keep funding Trump) makes him immune.

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Starlink cannot be profitable if cost of launching satellites is accounted for. Tesla is not profitable without carbon credits sales.

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Indeed. Carbon credit sales and marking Bitcoin to market! (But that marking-to-market works both ways, doesn't it? Should be fun when BTC price declines this quarter or the next.)

When it comes to Starlink, there are undoubtedly accounting allocation issues that offer lots of play in the joints for playing with the numbers.

I offered the note amending my claim about SpaceX simply because I lack any reliable data that would allow me to conclude whether, and to what extent, and based on what metrics, it is "profitable."

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Bitcoin is the ultimate, pure risk-on asset. Subject to brutal selling

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If there were only Bitcoin, I might understand the enthusiasm. But so many of these meme coins. We've lost our minds.

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It's hard to answer the question "Why is Tesla so overvalued?" without taking a close look at the highly unusual and very sustained activity in TSLA calls, especially front week calls, that started in 2019.

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Very true. Let me be emphatic about the dangers of shorting TSLA. Just don't do it unless you are carefully hedged and have a deep understanding of the options market.

The Financial Times recently ran a story suggesting there might be some chicanery afoot with the 0dte options. The options buying suddenly slowed down. But it will be back...

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I share your concern about Elon Musk's political influence. Furthermore, I share your's and Ed Niedermeyer's concerns about Tesla's market valuation. On the other hand, I have been driving a Tesla Model 3 for 6 years now (yes, I could claim I bought it before we knew Musk was crazy, but I won't). It has been, by far, the best car I've ever owned and I'm 73 having owned a whole bunch of cars, most of them very well respected Japanese and European brands. This made-in-America car beats them all. It has it's flaws like they all do, but overall it's a winner. It's hard for me to want to throw that baby out with the bathwater even though I think that's what Musk seems to be doing with the U.S. government.

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Thanks for this comment, Bill. I'm glad you've had such a great experience with your Model 3.

I own a BMW that has been flawless for five years. 80k miles, not a single mechanical issue, great mileage, and still on its first set of brakes. My wife has a five-year-old Honda CRV hybrid that has been equally reliable.

Like your Tesla, large parts of our cars were made in America.

Just curious: How many miles on your Model 3? Did you pay for FSD? And, have you experienced any battery degradation?

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How far would TSLA have to fall to get close to being thrown out of S&P 500?

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I think the current market cap for inclusion is $18B. There are also tests based on liquidity, regulatory issues, and profitability.

I wouldn't count on the S&P 500 dropping Tesla any time soon. The share price collapse would have to happen first, and in a big way.

The bigger S&P 500 danger is the rebalancing (mostly quarterly, IIRC) that would occur. Companies that experience relative market cap decreases are subjected to the double-whammy of index fund sales.

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Depends on how you define "imminent"... Musk indicated FSD was coming within two years in 2015.

https://electrek.co/2015/12/21/tesla-ceo-elon-musk-drops-prediction-full-autonomous-driving-from-3-years-to-2/

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It's been imminent for almost a decade. It will be here before the Second Coming.

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He oversold these capabilities. People believed the hype, and a few of them even died as a result.

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Your wise words are much appreciated, and indeed, you too represent America. Nevertheless, I regret to say that your country's standing in the world has been semi-irreversibly tarnished. The world's confidence and respect for the United States have not only greatly diminished (how else can one assess the deplorable situation?) but it shall take a considerable amount of time to be restored, if ever. As the saying goes, "Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice..." The damage inflicted is eerily reminiscent of Brexit: while the United Kingdom may eventually rejoin the European Union, it will likely do so as a much less influential member, and this will take at least another generation, if not longer. By then, Scotland and Northern Ireland might have departed the U.K. to join the EU.

On the matter of the donald "dropping his friends at will, and therefore soon doing the same with that buffoon," I must disagree for two reasons, both quite evident. Firstly, the buffoon will not "defy" the donald in any meaningful manner, unlike the individuals you mentioned. Thus, there will be no reason for the "donaldtraitor" to discard him. Secondly, owning Twitter and using it to propagate falsehoods that the "donaldtraitor" favours is a considerable advantage; hence, it is not in his interest to fall out with the buffoon. What will indeed bring both down is a bear market, a (possible) fall in the dollar, a potentially diminished confidence in U.S. bonds, coupled with a catastrophic decline in teshit's stock price. This should indeed occur, for the reasons you have astutely highlighted. Thank you for championing the truth and for striving for a decent America.

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Great comment, as always, Sig. Ferri.

I take your excellent points about why Musk is different from others Trump has thrown under the bus.

That said, Musk already has a lower approval rating than Trump. Trump cares about approval ratings a great deal. I believe that if Trump concludes Musk is dragging him down, that could be quite negative for Musk.

Second, there is a saying here that "all politics is local." There is a grain of truth to it. Individual GOP Senators and Representatives are going to have to face their constituents, some of whom are recently and shockingly unemployed thanks to Musk, and face questions about cuts to programs that are important to various constituencies, states, and regions. All this bureaucratic bloodletting may not seem quite so lovely when, as I think is inevitable, the local effects are felt.

But, as you suggest, perhaps I am engaging in wishful thinking...

Here's an addition to what I wrote:

https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/at-testy-town-halls-republicans-take-heat-for-trumps-bold-moves-e711a799?mod=hp_lead_pos5

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An interesting nugget here, if you are unaware of it...

Tesla’s law firm drafts Delaware bill that could salvage Musk pay package

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/18/firm-representing-musk-tesla-drafts-bill-for-delaware-corporate-law.html

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Thanks. I'm aware of it. I hope to write about it.

Yet another dispiriting development in a month of dispiriting developments.

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Speaking of "dispiriting development"...

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1892255777546526754.html?

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Never Fear...Kash Patel to the rescue.

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The media could help by not referring to DOGE as a "department", no matter what the acronym stands for. DOGE is NOT a government department. It is an acronym for a random group of tech boys paid by Musk to break our government. No more, no less.

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Good thing you have had a successful legal career, because you obviously have no future as a stock analyst. The idea Tesla should be valued as a car company with a PE of 8 is a clear demonstration you are, to quote Shakespeare, "leading your readers down the primrose path." Those who can read a balance sheet & an income statement are well aware Tesla's Energy pack business alone merits a $500 stock price. The Bots, Cars, and AI are all just potential Gravy. Meanwhile, their FSD has a TAM (total addressable market) in the tens of trillions. You are living in total denial if you believe Lidar is superior to Elon's camera system. Any Engineer worth their salt would bet on the cameras. No need to believe me; just look at the data that has led insurance company Bean Counters to decide Tesla's vehicles are so much safer than their competitors that insurance on a Model Y is less than half what I pay on my CRV. Actually, you don't even need an engineer or a Bean Counter, Take a ride in both a Waymo & Tesla - with an open mind - as I have - and see for yourself.

Also, with regard to SpaceX - the word on the street is they will be going public at 1.5-1.8 Trillion valuation in 16-24 months. Since Elon will maintain a controlling interest, he will be the world's first Trillionaire - assuming Michael Saylor doesn't get there first.

Trump Lazy? He was the hardest campaigner I've seen in my lifetime, by a mile - and since his inauguration, I don't think the guy has stopped moving. Trump has a lot of faults, but laziness ain't one of them.

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Thanks for reminding my readers that even the dishonest, the besotted, and the idiotic are allowed to post comments here.

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As a Tesla bull with a significant financial interest, I come here with an open mind, always looking to learn, and knowing full well there is wisdom in understanding the bear case. So when greeted with name-calling, instead of logical counterarguments, It tells me Tesla bears are governed by their hatred of Elon, as opposed to logic and facts. Thank you for that.

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How does their moatless "energy business" warrant $500/share? Enlighten us midwits...

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It’s in the quarterlies. The fastest-growing segment of Tesla, by far, is Megapack Energy storage, with growth rates (link below) of 244% YoY & 35% margins. Their customers are Governments & power companies, none of whom are sensitive about price. They just opened (Feb 11) a Gigafactory solely dedicated to making these, and broke ground on another - because production is swamped by demand. The TAM for Megapacks, depending on whether you believe the bearish Morgan Stanley, or the bullish Ark, is 2.1-3.3 trillion by 2030 - it's just under 250B today. They have over 80% market share, with a handful of others in the single digits - none of whom have factories allowing for mass production, except Elon. Where I come from, that is called a moat.

https://www.energy-storage.news/tesla-deployed-31gwh-of-storage-in-2024-segment-benefited-from-us756-million-tax-credits/

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Lol energy at $500 alone. There's something wrong with your calculator. It's a commodity business and they have no USP aside from Musk which has turned liability.

You're deluded or your calculator's broke.

FSD is not a complete product, Waymo actually works as described. There's no contest. No reason to believe cameras can ever work alone.

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A 250 billion market growing at a hundred percent a year with 35% margins, oh and he owns 80 percent of the market…you are right $500 is low

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If that's your belief you should really buy shares in CATL, Panasonic, BYD and LG. They're the ones with expertise and leadership positions in batteries. Tesla has no USP as I've already said but you have no disputed and they certainly don't have 80% of the battery market.

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You're arguing with a... oh, I think you know.

I always find it flattering to have an Elon troll or two drop by.

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Haha, yeah I know. I don't know why I do it. I just have a complex as i know it's futile..just some weird enjoyment about challenging the deluded world view.

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Lol….Energy packs, not batteries

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Lol an energy pack...do tell me more

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The global market for utility scale batteries was $37.56 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to $63.75 billion by 2033, an annual compound growth rate of 14.2%.

Tesla's share of the market in 2023 was 15%, margins are around 10%.

Market shares of the top producers are falling as more players enter the market. It is a competitive market, fast becoming a commodity market where all projects will go to the lowest bidder and margins will fall in line with those of typical manufacturers, around 10% or less.

Sungrow Power Supply, a Tesla competitor with a similar market share is valued at 149 billion CNY, about 20 billion USD.

Putting a similar valuation on Tesla's battery business would equate to about $6 USD per share.

Mr. Bagholder, if you continue to believe the crap you and the Tesla cult are spouting without bothering to verify any of your facts, you are very likely to end up holding the bags when the bubble bursts.

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Thanks for stopping by, jaberwock. I greatly admire your work, your competence, your thoroughness, your honesty, and your courage. I encourage all my readers to take a look at your Substack.

As for Bagholder, I think you should consider the possibility that he believes none of the garbage he deposits here. He is, more likely, like so many Musk fans, dishonest to the core. Perhaps he's convinced himself of what he says, but that's why the legal test of "knew or should have known" is useful. Despite the facts you've laid out, he'll continue peddling his lies.

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You guys lied about Biden. Lied about the laptop. Lied about censorship. Now you lie about Elon.

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"You guys"? I was a fierce critic of Biden, and thought suppression of the laptop story was outrageous.

What lie did I tell about Musk? Be specific, or you're not to be taken seriously.

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Still waiting to have you identify the lies I told about Elon.

You must be a real joy in your personal life.

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